Will Vox win the most seats in the Senate in the 2026 Spanish general election?

Elections to the Senate of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026, concurrently with the election to the Congress of Deputies. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Senate of Spain as a result of this election. Only senators directly elected in this election will count; senators appointed by the legislative assemblies of the autonomous communities will not count. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Parties will be ranked by the number of senators elected from the candidacies (candidaturas) attributed to them, as set out below. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of votes received nationwide by the candidates of the candidacies attributed to each party, as reported in the official results, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Senators will be attributed according to the candidacy under which they were elected, as reported in the official results, regardless of the party membership of individual candidates. Candidacies will be attributed as follows: PSOE–FA: candidacies of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE), the Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC–PSOE), all Senate of Progress (Senado de Progreso, SDP) candidacies, including where these appear under regional names, namely "Senado de Progreso de Aragón", "Senado de Progreso / Aurrera Doan Senatua", "Acord de Progrés per Mallorca", "Menorca al Senat", "Eivissa al Senat" and "Formentera al Senat", the Commons–Broad Front for Democracy (Comuns-Front Ampli per la democràcia, C–DEM) candidacies in Catalonia, and the Canarian People’s Unity (Unidad del Pueblo Canario, UPC) candidacies in the Canary Islands. Senators elected from all of these candidacies will be combined and attributed to a single option, "PSOE–FA". PP: candidacies of the People's Party (Partido Popular / Partit Popular), including the joint UPN–PP candidacy in Navarre and the joint "Sa Unió de Formentera (PP-Compromís)" candidacy in Formentera. Podemos: only candidacies presented by Podemos on its own. Joint candidacies in which Podemos participates, including Canarian People’s Unity (UPC), "Menorca al Senat" and "Eivissa al Senat", will not be attributed to Podemos. Any other candidacy will be attributed to the party or coalition that presents it, as named in the official proclamation of candidacies. Regional-language names, abbreviations and spelling variants of the same registered electoral entity will be treated as the same entity. Electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior (https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/).

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