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Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?1%-1.2 pp
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Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2027?7%-0.5 ppPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?2%
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Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?10%+1 ppPutin out as President of Russia by March 31, 2027?6%Netanyahu out by end of 2026?38%+6 pp
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Netanyahu out by June 30, 2027?72%+9.5 ppNetanyahu out by March 31, 2027?57%+0.5 ppIran leadership change by November 30?4%+0.4 pp
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Iran leadership change by December 31?9%Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?24%-0.5 ppWill Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?88%-2 pp
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Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?10%+0.8 ppWill Carlos Cuerpo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?<1%Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?2%+0.9 pp
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Will Ivanka Popović be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?8%Will Dejan Šoškić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?41%-17.5 ppUS imports Russian diesel by January 31?18%
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US imports Russian diesel by November 15?7%US imports Russian diesel by December 31?14%-1.5 ppRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?14%-1.5 pp
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Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?36%+0.5 ppRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by April 30, 2027?42%+1.5 ppPrices shown are indicative, not executable quotes. Check the live order book before trading.

















