Markets that matter to you

Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by 8%-12%?

94.9%Yes · chance

Past the scheduled end · still open for orders until resolved

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2027?

38%Yes · chance

24h +1.5 pp

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on December 31?

89.5%Yes · chance

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Closer Senate Race: Michigan or New Hampshire?

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Closer Senate Race: Georgia or Kansas?

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Closer Senate Race: Nebraska or Texas?

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Closer Senate Race: Kansas or Nebraska?

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Closer Senate Race: Montana or New Jersey?

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Will Trump visit any pandas in 2026?

9%Yes · chance

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Candace Owens divorced by December 31, 2027?

4.7%Yes · chance

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Mamdani visits the White House by December 31?

28%Yes · chance

24h -1 pp

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by October 31?

0.2%Yes · chance

Past the scheduled end · still open for orders until resolved