Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
48.5%Yes · chance24h +5.5 pp
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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
10.5%Yes · chance
Iran leadership change by November 30?
3.3%Yes · chance24h -2.2 pp
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?
20%Yes · chance24h -1.5 pp
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?
33%Yes · chance24h -3.5 pp
US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through December 31, 2026?
28.5%Yes · chanceUS x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 30, 2026?
40.5%Yes · chanceUS x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 15, 2026?
58.5%Yes · chanceIran leadership change by December 31?
7.5%Yes · chance24h -4 pp
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 6?
1.3%Yes · chance24h -1.5 pp
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?
23.5%Yes · chance24h -3.5 pp