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Will Katie Zacharia be officially given a new role in the Trump administration by December 31?

18.5%Yes · chance

Yes 18.5¢No 81.5¢

Indicative prices

24h -1 pp

24h $469.6 Vol. · Ends Jan 1, 2027

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?

22.5%Yes · chance

Yes 22.5¢No 77.5¢

Indicative prices

24h +1.5 pp

24h $467.4 Vol. · Ends Jan 1, 2028

JD Vance out as VP by...?

JD Vance out as VP by December 31?

3.2%Yes · chance

Yes 3.2¢No 96.9¢

Indicative prices

24h $466.6 Vol. · Ends Jan 1, 2027

Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?

11%Yes · chance

Yes 11¢No 89¢

Indicative prices

24h -6 pp

24h $460.4 Vol. · Ends Jan 2, 2027

Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?

2.2%Yes · chance

Yes 2.2¢No 97.8¢

Indicative prices

24h $460 Vol. · Ends Jan 1, 2027

Which party will win the Senate in 2028?

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2028 elections?

12%Yes · chance

Yes 12¢No 88¢

Indicative prices

24h $457.7 Vol. · Ends Nov 8, 2028

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Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2028 elections?

86.5%Yes · chance

Yes 86.5¢No 13.5¢

Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?

Will Xi Jinping purge Zhang Shengmin in 2026?

1.5%Yes · chance

Yes 1.5¢No 98.6¢

Indicative prices

24h $452.1 Vol. · Ends Jan 1, 2027

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Will Xi Jinping purge Wang Yi in 2026?

2.5%Yes · chance

Yes 2.5¢No 97.5¢

Indicative prices

24h -0.7 pp

24h $10.2 Vol. · Ends Jan 1, 2027

New Mexico Senate Election: Turnout

Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Mexico be between 700,000 and 750,000?

49%Yes · chance

Yes 49¢No 51¢

Indicative prices

24h -38.5 pp

24h $360.4 Vol. · End date has passed; source still shows orders accepted. Check market rules.

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Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Mexico be between 800,000 and 850,000?

1.7%Yes · chance

Yes 1.7¢

Dem sweep & Chinese AI model #1 by end of 2027?

Will the Democrats sweep the House and Senate and no Chinese company have the #1 AI model by the end of 2027?

76.1%Yes · chance

Yes 76.1¢No 23.8¢

Indicative prices

24h -11.1 pp

24h $297.8 Vol. · Ends Jan 1, 2028

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Will the Democrats sweep the House and Senate and a Chinese company have the #1 AI model by the end of 2027?

24.6%Yes · chance

Yes 24.6¢No 75.4¢

Victoria Legislative Council Election Winner

Will One Nation win the most seats in the next Victorian Legislative Council election?

10.9%Yes · chance

Yes 10.9¢No 89.1¢

Indicative prices

24h -3.9 pp

24h $262.9 Vol. · Ends Nov 29, 2026

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Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian Legislative Council election?

81%Yes · chance

Yes 81¢

Closest Governor's Race?

Will Kansas be the closest Governor's race in 2026?

92.6%Yes · chance

Yes 92.6¢No 7.4¢

Indicative prices

24h +1.8 pp

24h $258.4 Vol. · End date has passed; source still shows orders accepted. Check market rules.

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Will Tennessee be the closest Governor's race in 2026?

6.4%Yes · chance

Yes 6.4¢No 93.7¢

Indicative prices

24h -19.9 pp

24h $163 Vol. · End date has passed; source still shows orders accepted. Check market rules.

Iowa Senate Election Margin of Victory

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa Senate election by 12% or more?

5.4%Yes · chance

Yes 5.4¢No 94.6¢

Indicative prices

24h +4 pp

24h $230 Vol. · End date has passed; source still shows orders accepted. Check market rules.

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Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa Senate election by 0%-3%?

23.8%Yes · chance

Yes 23.8¢No 76.3¢

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Will Katie Zacharia be officially given a new role in the Trump administration by December 31?