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Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?

25.5%Yes · chance

Yes 25.5¢No 74.5¢

Indicative prices

24h +1 pp

24h $401.9 Vol. · Ends Jan 1, 2027

US charges Hormuz fees by...?

US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?

2.8%Yes · chance

Yes 2.8¢No 97.3¢

Indicative prices

24h $401 Vol. · Ends Jan 1, 2027

Israel Election: Arab party disqualified?

0.5%Yes · chance

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

Indicative prices

24h $400.5 Vol. · Ends Nov 30, 2026

Missouri enacts data center moratorium by...?

Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?

19.5%Yes · chance

Yes 19.5¢No 80.5¢

Indicative prices

24h $400 Vol. · Ends Jan 1, 2028

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Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?

3.4%Yes · chance

Yes 3.4¢No 96.7¢

Changhua County Magistrate Election Winner

Will Chen Su-yueh win the next Changhua County Magistrate election?

85.5%Yes · chance

Yes 85.5¢No 14.5¢

Indicative prices

24h +4.5 pp

24h $387.3 Vol. · Ends Nov 29, 2026

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Will Wei Ping-cheng win the next Changhua County Magistrate election?

9%Yes · chance

Yes 9¢No 91¢

El Salvador Legislative Election: 3rd Place

Will PDC win the third most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?

39%Yes · chance

Yes 39¢No 61¢

Indicative prices

24h +20 pp

24h $372.2 Vol. · Ends Mar 1, 2027

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Will PCN win the third most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?

9.1%Yes · chance

Yes 9.1¢No 90.9¢

LA-05 House Election Winner

Will the Republican Party win the LA-05 House seat?

94.3%Yes · chance

Yes 94.3¢No 5.7¢

Indicative prices

24h +3.8 pp

24h $320 Vol. · End date has passed; source still shows orders accepted. Check market rules.

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Will the Democratic Party win the LA-05 House seat?

5.8%Yes · chance

Yes 5.8¢No 94.3¢

Indicative prices

24h -3.4 pp

24h $75 Vol. · End date has passed; source still shows orders accepted. Check market rules.

Dem sweep & Chinese AI model #1 by end of 2027?

Will the Democrats sweep the House and Senate and no Chinese company have the #1 AI model by the end of 2027?

62.2%Yes · chance

Yes 62.2¢No 37.9¢

Indicative prices

24h -25.1 pp

24h $288.3 Vol. · Ends Jan 1, 2028

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Will the Democrats sweep the House and Senate and a Chinese company have the #1 AI model by the end of 2027?

38.3%Yes · chance

Yes 38.3¢No 61.8¢

Iowa Governor Election Margin of Victory

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election by 12% or more?

3.4%Yes · chance

Yes 3.4¢No 96.6¢

Indicative prices

24h +2.7 pp

24h $250.1 Vol. · End date has passed; source still shows orders accepted. Check market rules.

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Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election by 9%-12%?

89.6%Yes · chance

Yes 89.6¢

Who will Trump publicly praise by November 30?

Will Donald Trump publicly praise Flávio Bolsonaro by November 30, 2026?

31%Yes · chance

Yes 31¢No 69¢

Indicative prices

24h -10 pp

24h $240.3 Vol. · Ends Dec 1, 2026

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Will Donald Trump publicly praise Nicki Minaj by November 30, 2026?

16%Yes · chance

Yes 16¢No 84¢

NC-04 House Election Margin of Victory

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-04 House election by 60% or more?

79.4%Yes · chance

Yes 79.4¢No 20.6¢

Indicative prices

24h +3.8 pp

24h $172 Vol. · End date has passed; source still shows orders accepted. Check market rules.

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Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-04 House election by 55%-60%?

1.5%Yes · chance

Yes 1.5¢

What will Trump say this week? (November 2 - November 8)

Will Trump say "Brazil" this week?

47%Yes · chance

Yes 47¢No 53¢

Indicative prices

24h +0.5 pp

24h $100.5 Vol. · Ends Nov 9, 2026

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Will Trump say "Christmas" this week?

25.5%Yes · chance

Yes 25.5¢No 74.5¢

Indicative prices

24h -1 pp

24h $10.4 Vol. · Ends Nov 9, 2026

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Explore markets

Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?

US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?

Israel Election: Arab party disqualified?

Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?

Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?

Will Chen Su-yueh win the next Changhua County Magistrate election?

Will Wei Ping-cheng win the next Changhua County Magistrate election?

Will PDC win the third most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?

Will PCN win the third most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?

Will the Republican Party win the LA-05 House seat?

Will the Democratic Party win the LA-05 House seat?

Will the Democrats sweep the House and Senate and no Chinese company have the #1 AI model by the end of 2027?

Will the Democrats sweep the House and Senate and a Chinese company have the #1 AI model by the end of 2027?

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election by 12% or more?

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election by 9%-12%?

Will Donald Trump publicly praise Flávio Bolsonaro by November 30, 2026?

Will Donald Trump publicly praise Nicki Minaj by November 30, 2026?

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-04 House election by 60% or more?

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-04 House election by 55%-60%?

Will Trump say "Brazil" this week?

Will Trump say "Christmas" this week?

Explore markets

Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?

US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?

Israel Election: Arab party disqualified?

Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?

Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?

Will Chen Su-yueh win the next Changhua County Magistrate election?

Will Wei Ping-cheng win the next Changhua County Magistrate election?

Will PDC win the third most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?

Will PCN win the third most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?

Will the Republican Party win the LA-05 House seat?

Will the Democratic Party win the LA-05 House seat?

Will the Democrats sweep the House and Senate and no Chinese company have the #1 AI model by the end of 2027?

Will the Democrats sweep the House and Senate and a Chinese company have the #1 AI model by the end of 2027?

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election by 12% or more?

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election by 9%-12%?

Will Donald Trump publicly praise Flávio Bolsonaro by November 30, 2026?

Will Donald Trump publicly praise Nicki Minaj by November 30, 2026?

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-04 House election by 60% or more?

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-04 House election by 55%-60%?

Will Trump say "Brazil" this week?

Will Trump say "Christmas" this week?

Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?

Will Lin Shih-hsien win the next Changhua County Magistrate election?

Will PAIS win the third most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election by 6%-9%?

Will Donald Trump publicly praise Mark Rutte by November 30, 2026?

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-04 House election by 50%-55%?

Will Trump say "Rigged Election" this week?