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Lindsay Clancy convicted of manslaughter in 2026?

1.7%Yes · chance

Yes 1.7¢No 98.3¢

24h -1.2 pp

24h $136.7 Vol. · Ends Dec 31, 2026

North Carolina Supreme Court Election Winner

Will the Democrat win the North Carolina Supreme Court general election?

96.4%Yes · chance

Yes 96.4¢No 3.7¢

Awaiting result · still accepting orders, check the rules

Will the Republican win the North Carolina Supreme Court general election?0.4%

Hung Cao confirmed as Secretary of the Navy by...?

Will Hung Cao be confirmed as Secretary of the Navy by November 30?

37%Yes · chance

Yes 37¢No 63¢

24h +3 pp

Ends Dec 1, 2026

Will Hung Cao be confirmed as Secretary of the Navy by December 31?30%

Trump renames Lake Okeechobee to "Trump Lake" in 2026?

3.3%Yes · chance

Yes 3.3¢No 96.7¢

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Zack Polanski out as Green Party Leader by...?

Zack Polanski out as Green Party Leader by March 31?

22.5%Yes · chance

Yes 22.5¢No 77.5¢

24h +0.5 pp

Ends Mar 31, 2027

Zack Polanski out as Green Party Leader by December 31?8.5%

Will any aircraft land or take off at Kyiv Boryspil Airport by...?

Will any aircraft land or take off at Kyiv Boryspil Airport by December 31?

9.5%Yes · chance

Yes 9.5¢No 90.5¢

24h -0.5 pp

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?

33.5%Yes · chance

Yes 33.5¢No 66.5¢

24h -3 pp

24h $66.6 Vol. · Ends Dec 31, 2026

US Treasury announces Bitcoin purchase by ___?

US Treasury announces Bitcoin purchase by December 31, 2027?

15.5%Yes · chance

Yes 15.5¢No 84.5¢

Ends Jan 1, 2028

US Treasury announces Bitcoin purchase by December 31, 2026?4.1%

Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire by November 30?

20.5%Yes · chance

Yes 20.5¢No 79.5¢

24h -5.5 pp

24h $60 Vol. · Ends Dec 1, 2026

Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 23, 2026?

22%Yes · chance

Yes 22¢No 78¢

Awaiting result · still accepting orders, check the rules

WA-10 House Election Margin of Victory

Will a Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 WA-10 House election by 30%-35%?

51%Yes · chance

Yes 51¢No 49¢

24h $25.1 Vol. · Awaiting result · still accepting orders, check the rules

WA-02 House Election Margin of Victory

Will a Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 WA-02 House election by 30%-35%?

50%Yes · chance

Yes 50¢No 50¢

24h +4 pp

24h $525.3 Vol. · Awaiting result · still accepting orders, check the rules

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