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Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?

7.5%Yes · chance

Yes 7.5¢No 92.5¢

24h -1 pp

24h $23.5K Vol. · $2.1M Vol. · Ends Jan 1, 2027

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by November 30?

3.6%Yes · chance

Yes 3.6¢No 96.5¢

24h -1 pp

24h $18.8K Vol. · $179K Vol. · Ends Dec 1, 2026

US imports Russian diesel by December 31?

16%Yes · chance

Yes 16¢No 84¢

24h -9.5 pp

24h $18.8K Vol. · $131.7K Vol. · Ends Jan 1, 2027

US imports Russian diesel by November 30?

15.5%Yes · chance

Yes 15.5¢No 84.5¢

24h -2.5 pp

24h $16.1K Vol. · $351.1K Vol. · Ends Dec 1, 2026

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

90.9%Yes · chance

Yes 90.9¢No 9.1¢

24h +3.1 pp

24h $15.2K Vol. · $7.1M Vol. · Ends Dec 31, 2026

US imports Russian diesel by March 31?

22%Yes · chance

Yes 22¢No 78¢

24h -4 pp

24h $11.5K Vol. · $41K Vol. · Ends Apr 1, 2027

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?

0.2%Yes · chance

Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢

24h $7.6K Vol. · $1.8M Vol. · Ends Nov 1, 2026

Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

0.4%Yes · chance

Yes 0.4¢No 99.6¢

24h $3.1K Vol. · $958.7K Vol. · Ends Dec 31, 2026

Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

2.7%Yes · chance

Yes 2.7¢No 97.3¢

24h -0.6 pp

24h $3.1K Vol. · $2.3M Vol. · Ends Dec 31, 2026

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