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Dem sweep & Gaza ceasefire Phase II by end of 2027?

Will the Democrats sweep the House and Senate and Israel and Hamas not agree to ceasefire Phase II by the end of 2027?

92%Yes · chance

Yes 92¢No 8¢

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Will the Democrats sweep the House and Senate and Israel and Hamas agree to ceasefire Phase II by the end of 2027?8.6%

Jon Ossoff announces a presidential run by...?

Will Jon Ossoff announce a presidential run by June 30, 2027?

62%Yes · chance

Yes 62¢No 38¢

24h +2 pp

Ends Jul 1, 2027

Will Jon Ossoff announce a presidential run by March 31, 2027?22.5%

Dem sweep & Chinese AI model #1 by end of 2027?

Will the Democrats sweep the House and Senate and no Chinese company have the #1 AI model by the end of 2027?

88.1%Yes · chance

Yes 88.1¢No 11.9¢

24h -0.7 pp

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Will the Democrats sweep the House and Senate and a Chinese company have the #1 AI model by the end of 2027?12.5%

Scarborough North By-Election Winner

Will James Li win the 2026 Scarborough North by-election?

95.5%Yes · chance

Yes 95.5¢No 4.5¢

Ends Dec 7, 2026

Will Gurmit Sandhu win the 2026 Scarborough North by-election?4.3%

Laurier—Sainte-Marie By-Election Winner

Will Guy Cormier win the 2026 Laurier—Sainte-Marie by-election?

94.5%Yes · chance

Yes 94.5¢No 5.5¢

Ends Dec 7, 2026

How many Knesset members will vote for the new Israeli government?

Will between 57 and 59 Knesset members vote “For” the new Israeli government?

22%Yes · chance

Yes 22¢No 78¢

Ends Mar 1, 2027

Spain General Election: Elected Senate Winner

Will PP win the most seats in the Senate in the 2026 Spanish general election?

94.5%Yes · chance

Yes 94.5¢No 5.5¢

Ends Nov 30, 2026

2026 Senate or Governor race goes to full recount?

34%Yes · chance

Yes 34¢No 66¢

24h -17.5 pp

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Belgium snap election called by December 31?

13%Yes · chance

Yes 13¢No 87¢

24h +7 pp

Ends Jan 1, 2027

How many Knesset members will abstain or not vote on the new Israeli government?

Will no Knesset vote of confidence in a new government occur by February 28?

42%Yes · chance

Yes 42¢No 58¢

24h -1 pp

Ends Mar 1, 2027

Kansas Senate loser concedes by...?

Will the loser of the Kansas Senate election concede by November 3?

99%Yes · chance

Yes 99¢No 1¢

Past the scheduled end · still open for orders until resolved

Iowa Senate loser concedes by...?

Will the loser of the Iowa Senate election concede by November 3?

18%Yes · chance

Yes 18¢No 82¢

Past the scheduled end · still open for orders until resolved

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