Markets that matter to you

Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?

5%Yes · chance

24h $39.9 Vol. · Ends Jan 1, 2027

Will Daniele Monroe-Moreno win the 2026 North Las Vegas mayoral election?

97%Yes · chance

24h +15.5 pp

24h $39.8 Vol. · Past the scheduled end · still open for orders until resolved

Will Vox win 66-70 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?

26%Yes · chance

24h +1.5 pp

Ends Nov 30, 2026

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

2.3%Yes · chance

24h $38.4 Vol. · Ends Jan 1, 2027

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New Jersey Senate election by 21% or more?

98%Yes · chance

Past the scheduled end · still open for orders until resolved

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-12 House election by 5%-10%?

77.5%Yes · chance

24h +0.9 pp

Past the scheduled end · still open for orders until resolved

Will Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?

27.8%Yes · chance

24h $36 Vol. · Past the scheduled end · still open for orders until resolved

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-05 House election by 0%-5%?

97.8%Yes · chance

Past the scheduled end · still open for orders until resolved

Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on December 31?

89.5%Yes · chance

24h $26.5 Vol. · Ends Dec 31, 2026

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 WI-03 House election by 6%-9%?

96.5%Yes · chance

Past the scheduled end · still open for orders until resolved

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WI-08 House election by 6%-9%?

97%Yes · chance

24h +10.5 pp

Past the scheduled end · still open for orders until resolved

Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from South Dakota be between 300,000 and 325,000?

94.2%Yes · chance

24h $20 Vol. · Past the scheduled end · still open for orders until resolved