Markets that matter to you

France declares state of siege (martial law) by...?

France declares state of siege (martial law) by December 31, 2026?

2.3%Yes · chance

Yes 2.3¢No 97.8¢

Ends Jan 1, 2027

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• France declares state of siege (martial law) by November 15, 2026?0.2%

Maine Senate Election Margin of Victory (Final Round)

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the final round of the 2026 Maine Senate election by 3%-6%?

90.5%Yes · chance

Yes 90.5¢No 9.5¢

Past the scheduled end · still open for orders until resolved

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• Will the Democratic Party candidate win the final round of the 2026 Maine Senate election by 6%-9%?22.7%
• Will the Republican Party candidate win the final round of the 2026 Maine Senate election by 0%-3%?0.8%

Nuñez out as French Interior Minister by...?

Nuñez out as French Interior Minister by November 30, 2026?

5.5%Yes · chance

Yes 5.5¢No 94.5¢

24h -0.5 pp

Ends Dec 1, 2026

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Spain General Election: PP % of vote?

Will PP receive between 30% and 32% of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?

27%Yes · chance

Yes 27¢No 73¢

24h -2.5 pp

Ends Nov 30, 2026

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• Will PP receive between 32% and 34% of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?16%
• Will PP receive between 34% and 36% of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?14.5%

Spain General Election: Vox # of seats?

Will Vox win 66-70 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?

26%Yes · chance

Yes 26¢No 74¢

Ends Nov 30, 2026

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• Will Vox win 61-65 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?16.5%
• Will Vox win fewer than 56 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?3.6%

Senate Combo: Mississippi, South Carolina, Montana

Will Democrats win the Mississippi and South Carolina Senate seats, and Republicans win Montana?

99%Yes · chance

Yes 99¢No 1.1¢

Past the scheduled end · still open for orders until resolved

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• Will Republicans win the Mississippi and Montana Senate seats, and Democrats win South Carolina?1.2%

Spain General Election: BNG # of seats?

Will BNG win exactly 2 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?

68%Yes · chance

Yes 68¢No 32¢

24h +3.5 pp

Ends Nov 30, 2026

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• Will BNG win exactly 3 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?18.5%
• Will BNG win 4 or more seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?14.5%

Spain General Election: PP # of seats?

Will PP win 138-143 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?

20%Yes · chance

Yes 20¢No 80¢

24h +0.5 pp

Ends Nov 30, 2026

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• Will PP win 126-131 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?20%
• Will PP win fewer than 120 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?14%

Jonathan Powell out as UK National Security Adviser by...?

Jonathan Powell out as UK National Security Adviser by December 31?

69%Yes · chance

Yes 69¢No 31¢

Ends Jan 1, 2027

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SCOTUS accepts Mahmoud Khalil case by...?

Will SCOTUS accept the Mahmoud Khalil case by December 31, 2026?

Yes —No —

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Ends Jan 1, 2027

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Will SCOTUS accept the Mahmoud Khalil case by June 30, 2027?

Yes —No —

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