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Gyanesh Kumar out as Chief Election Commissioner of India by December 31?

Will Gyanesh Kumar be out as Chief Election Commissioner of India by December 31?

9.5%Yes · chance

Yes 9.5¢No 90.5¢

24h -0.5 pp

Ends Jan 1, 2027

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French Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?

29.5%Yes · chance

Yes 29.5¢No 70.5¢

Ends Apr 18, 2027

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• Will Édouard Philippe win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?27.5%
• Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?16.5%

Spain General Election: Turnout

Will voter turnout be between 68% and 70% in the 2026 Spanish general election?

27.5%Yes · chance

Yes 27.5¢No 72.5¢

Ends Nov 30, 2026

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• Will voter turnout be 70% or higher in the 2026 Spanish general election?26.5%
• Will voter turnout be between 62% and 64% in the 2026 Spanish general election?10%

Veracruz Congress Election Winner

Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Veracruz Congress election?

79%Yes · chance

Yes 79¢No 21¢

Ends Jun 7, 2027

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• Will PVEM win the most seats in the 2027 Veracruz Congress election?6.1%
• Will PRI win the most seats in the 2027 Veracruz Congress election?4.9%

Zacatecas Congress Election Winner

Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Zacatecas Congress election?

84%Yes · chance

Yes 84¢No 16¢

Ends Jun 7, 2027

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• Will PAN win the most seats in the 2027 Zacatecas Congress election?9%
• Will PVEM win the most seats in the 2027 Zacatecas Congress election?8.5%

Balkan Elections Combo: Serbia and Bulgaria

Will Ilija Srdanović become Serbian PM and Iliana Iotova win Bulgaria?

38%Yes · chance

Yes 38¢No 62¢

Past the scheduled end · still open for orders until resolved

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• Will Aleksandar Vučić become Serbian PM and Iliana Iotova win Bulgaria?0.4%

EU lifts ban on Russian diesel imports by...?

Will the EU lift its ban on Russian diesel imports by December 31, 2026?

4.4%Yes · chance

Yes 4.4¢No 95.7¢

Ends Jan 1, 2027

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Yucatán Congress Election Winner

Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Yucatán Congress election?

71%Yes · chance

Yes 71¢No 29¢

24h +2 pp

Ends Jun 7, 2027

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• Will PAN win the most seats in the 2027 Yucatán Congress election?23.5%
• Will PRI win the most seats in the 2027 Yucatán Congress election?3.4%

Turkish troops enter Yemen by...?

Turkish troops enter Yemen by December 31, 2026?

7%Yes · chance

Yes 7¢No 93¢

24h +1 pp

Ends Jan 1, 2027

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