US imports Russian diesel before Russia x Ukraine peace talks?

On October 9, 2026, Donald Trump announced an agreement with Vladimir Putin to import Russian diesel fuel, and the United States Treasury issued General License 135 authorizing the importation of Russian-origin diesel fuel into the United States through April 7, 2027 (see: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/117412435306815143 & https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20261009_33). This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russian diesel fuel is imported to the United States before Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If Russian diesel fuel is imported to the United States before Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place before Russian diesel fuel is imported to the United States, this market will resolve to “No”. If neither an import of Russian diesel fuel to the United States nor Russia x Ukraine peace talks occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Only imports of Russian diesel fuel to the United States after market creation will be considered. Russian diesel fuel refers to diesel fuel of Russian production origin. Imported to the United States refers to the diesel fuel being physically delivered to a United States port or into the terrestrial territory of the United States for commercial or government use within the United States. Diesel fuel carried as a vessel’s own fuel, held in bond for re-export, or passing through the United States in transit to another country will not qualify. To qualify, the import must either be described by a consensus of credible reporting as having been made under the agreement announced on October 9, 2026 (or any amended or successor arrangement between the governments of the United States and Russia), or be authorized under General License 135 (or any amended or successor authorization permitting the importation of Russian-origin diesel fuel). The resolution source for whether Russian diesel fuel has been imported to the United States will be a consensus of credible reporting. Russia x Ukraine peace talks will be considered to have taken place if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine aimed at discussing a ceasefire, peace agreement, or other substantive de-escalation of the ongoing conflict after market creation. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Meetings or talks limited to humanitarian issues will not qualify unless they also include substantive negotiation regarding broader Russia-Ukraine peace terms, such as a ceasefire, peace agreement, territorial issues, security guarantees, or similar. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for whether Russia x Ukraine peace talks have taken place will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting.

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