Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a direct or indirect diplomatic meeting between Russia and Ukraine between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting occurs when representatives of both listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in diplomacy on behalf of their respective governments or governing authorities deliberately meet for the purpose of diplomacy or negotiation. A qualifying meeting need not result in any agreement, joint statement, prisoner exchange, or further engagement. A meeting qualifies regardless of its subject matter, including meetings limited to humanitarian issues (e.g., prisoner exchanges, the return of civilians or children, or humanitarian pauses), whether or not broader Russia-Ukraine peace terms, such as a ceasefire, peace agreement, territorial issues, security guarantees, or similar, are discussed. Representatives include officials mandated by their government or parliament to negotiate such humanitarian matters on its behalf, including Ukraine's Parliamentary Commissioner for Human Rights and Russia's High Commissioner for Human Rights. Mediators or other third-party officials do not count as representatives of either listed country. A direct meeting refers to a diplomatic meeting where the representatives of both countries directly interact with each other in person. Meetings conducted through translators qualify, provided direct, face-to-face communication occurs. An indirect meeting refers to a meeting conducted indirectly through designated mediators or facilitators. A qualifying indirect meeting must meet both of the following criteria (i) the designated intermediaries act with the knowledge and authorization of both entities; (ii) representatives of both entities are physically present in the same facility, venue, or city as part of a single organized round of talks convened for the purpose of diplomatic engagement, with the intermediary conveying communications between the representatives or delegations on the same day. “The same day” means the same calendar day local time at the meeting location. Sessions, proceedings, or convenings of standing international organizations, treaty bodies, or recurring multilateral summits or conferences (e.g., the United Nations General Assembly, G7, and G20 summits) do not qualify, unless a qualifying and deliberate diplomatic meeting between representatives of the listed countries is separately held alongside such a convening. The following do not qualify as either a direct or indirect diplomatic meeting: chance encounters; standalone exchanges limited to greetings, courtesies, or photo opportunities; meetings conducted remotely, by telephone, or by any other means where the relevant representatives are not physically present at the same facility, venue, or city on the same day; discussions involving persons not authorized to engage in diplomacy or negotiation on behalf of their respective governments. The occurrence of a qualifying meeting must be confirmed by the resolution sources by the resolution date. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.

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