Will PP win the Spanish election by 15-21 seats over PSOE?

Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin, in seats, between the number of seats won in the Congress of Deputies of Spain as a result of this election by the People’s Party (“PP”) and by the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (“PSOE”). The margin is defined as the absolute difference between the two parties’ seat totals. This market will resolve to the bracket for the party that wins more seats that contains this margin. If both parties win the same number of seats, this market will resolve to “Tie”. If the results of this election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. Seats and votes will be attributed according to the electoral list on which they were obtained, as reported in the official results, regardless of the party membership of individual candidates. Lists will be attributed as follows: PSOE: lists of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party, including the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) lists in Catalonia. PP: lists of the People's Party, including the joint UPN–PP list in Navarre. Broad Front (FA): all Broad Front lists, including Catalunya en Comú in Catalonia, Compromís–Valencian Front in the Valencian Community, and Canarian People’s Unity (UPC) in the Canary Islands. ERC: Republican Left of Catalonia lists, including the joint ERC–Podem lists in Catalonia. Podemos: only lists presented by Podemos on its own. CCa: Canarian Coalition lists, including the joint CCa–1º CAN lists in the Canary Islands. Any other list will be attributed to the party or coalition that presents it, as named in the official proclamation of candidacies. Electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named parties in the Congress of Deputies of Spain. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior (https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/).

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