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Vance's Republican nomination odds dip to 25% by December 31?39%

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Vance's Republican nomination odds hit 40% by December 31?25%+1 pts Vance's Republican nomination odds hit 45% by December 31?14%

Trump Jr.'s Republican nomination odds hit 4% by December 31?3%-2.1 pts

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Trump Jr.'s Republican nomination odds hit 5% by December 31?1%

Will Guy Cormier win the 2026 Laurier—Sainte-Marie by-election?95%

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Will Zumretay Arkin win the 2026 Laurier—Sainte-Marie by-election?4%+0.4 pts Will Nimâ Machouf win the 2026 Laurier—Sainte-Marie by-election?1%-2.4 pts

Will Nelson Pohl win the 2026 Yorkton—Melville by-election?95%+0.1 pts

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Will Aaron Kienle win the 2026 Yorkton—Melville by-election?3%-0.1 pts Will Michaela Krakowetz win the 2026 Yorkton—Melville by-election?<1%-0.4 pts

Will between 57 and 59 Knesset members vote “For” the new Israeli government?22%

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Will no Knesset vote of confidence in a new government occur by February 28?19%+5.5 pts Will between 63 and 65 Knesset members vote “For” the new Israeli government?2%-0.5 pts

Will PP win the most seats in the Senate in the 2026 Spanish general election?95%

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Will PSOE–FA win the most seats in the Senate in the 2026 Spanish general election?5%Will Vox win the most seats in the Senate in the 2026 Spanish general election?<1%+0.3 pts

Belgium snap election called by December 31?20%+0.5 pts

Will Vox win the second-most seats in Ávila in the 2026 Spanish general election?48%

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Will PSOE win the second-most seats in Ávila in the 2026 Spanish general election?45%Will PP win the second-most seats in Ávila in the 2026 Spanish general election?2%

Will no Knesset vote of confidence in a new government occur by February 28?42%+0.5 pts

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Will exactly 2 Knesset members abstain or not vote on the new Israeli government?28%-4 pts Will between 7 and 9 Knesset members abstain or not vote on the new Israeli government?18%

Will the loser of the Kansas Senate election concede by November 3?99%

Will the loser of the Iowa Senate election concede by November 3?18%

Will Marine Le Pen receive less than 28% of the vote in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?—

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Will Marine Le Pen receive between 28% and 31% of the vote in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?—Will Marine Le Pen receive between 31% and 34% of the vote in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?—

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