Will between 7 and 9 Knesset members abstain or not vote on the new Israeli government?

Following the Israeli legislative election of October 27, 2026, the 26th Knesset is set to hold a vote of confidence in a new government. This market will resolve to the number of Members of the Knesset who do not vote “For” or “Against” in the first vote of confidence in a new Israeli government held following this election, including Members who abstain, are absent, or otherwise do not participate. This number is calculated as 120 minus the combined number of “For” and “Against” votes. The vote count refers to the first final vote of confidence in the full Knesset, not committee votes or procedural motions. If no such vote is held by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by February 28”. Only a vote of confidence held by the 26th Knesset, elected on October 27, 2026, will be considered. If the 26th Knesset is dissolved and a new election is called before such a vote is held, this market will resolve to “No vote by February 28”. Votes of confidence held after any subsequent Knesset election will not be considered. The resolution sources will be official information from the Knesset and a consensus of credible reporting.

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