Will Marine Le Pen hit 38% in any poll before the first round of the French presidential election?

The first round of the French presidential election is scheduled to take place on April 18, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any first-round voting intention poll for this election conducted by Elabe, YouGov, OpinionWay, Ifop, Harris Interactive, Odoxa, or Ipsos, and published between market creation and April 17, 2027, 11:59 PM Paris time, shows Marine Le Pen with the listed percentage or higher of first-round voting intentions. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a poll tests multiple first-round scenarios (e.g., different combinations of candidates), Le Pen reaching the listed percentage or higher in any single tested scenario will qualify. Rolling polls (e.g., Ifop-Fiducial rolling) qualify, with each individual release considered a separate poll. Polls of the second round, polls conducted by other pollsters, and averages or aggregations of polls will not qualify. The figure will be taken as published by the pollster, without rounding. Polls conducted by the listed pollsters under any successor or co-branded name (e.g., Ipsos bva, Toluna Harris Interactive) will qualify. The resolution source for this market will be the polls as published by the listed pollsters or the media outlets that commissioned them; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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