Will ARENA gain the most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?

Legislative elections to elect the 60 members of the Legislative Assembly of El Salvador are scheduled to take place on February 28, 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election, compared to before the election. For the purposes of this market, the number of seats a party held before the election will be the number of seats attributed to that party in the official final results of the February 4, 2024 Salvadoran legislative election, as published by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal of El Salvador: Nuevas Ideas (NI) 54, ARENA 2, PCN 2, PDC 1, and Vamos 1. All other parties will be considered to have held 0 seats. Changes to the composition of the Legislative Assembly after the 2024 election, including resignations, replacements, party switches, or changes in parliamentary-group affiliation, will not be considered. A party's seats gained will be calculated as the number of seats attributed to that party in the official results of the 2027 election minus the number of seats it held before the election, as defined above. This figure may be zero or negative. If the results are not known definitively by February 29, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. Seats will be counted only where they are attributed to the specified party. Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the Legislative Assembly of El Salvador. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal of El Salvador (https://www.tse.gob.sv/).

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