Will Ukraine target Moscow on November 25, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine targets Moscow through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Ukraine, directed at Moscow. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Military action consisting primarily or exclusively of munitions intercepted before impact will still qualify if directed at Moscow as set out below; whether damage resulted will not be considered. A military action will be considered directed at Moscow if and only if a resolution source reports a qualifying munition, or its debris, landing within the federal city of Moscow, or a qualifying munition being intercepted over or en route to the federal city of Moscow. A munition will be considered intercepted en route to the federal city of Moscow only if a resolution source states that it was flying toward Moscow (e.g., the Mayor of Moscow’s reports of drones flying toward Moscow being shot down). Reports by the Mayor of Moscow that munitions were shot down, destroyed, or repelled will be treated as stating that they were flying toward Moscow unless the report indicates otherwise. Air raid alerts, airport restrictions, and reports that air defense is active or of explosions in Moscow will not qualify on their own. The occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. A qualifying military action takes place on the date (Moscow time) on which a munition lands or is intercepted, not the date on which it is launched. Each landing or interception counts separately, so an attack that continues past midnight may count toward both dates. If the resolution sources do not make clear when a landing or interception occurred, it counts toward the date on which a resolution source first reported it. Totals covering a period that spans more than one date (e.g., overnight counts of drones launched or shot down) will not establish the date of any landing or interception and will not be treated as the first report of one. Unless a qualifying military action has already been established by a consensus of information available from the resolution sources, this market will remain open until 11:59 PM Moscow time on the third calendar date following the specified date. If multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a potentially qualifying incident at that time, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia, including reports from the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation relayed by the Mayor of Moscow on his official channels (e.g., https://t.me/mos_sobyanin or https://max.ru/mossobyanin), and a consensus of credible reporting. Where reporting relays or paraphrases an official statement, the original wording of that statement will be used. Reports of interceptions over the Moscow Region or other regions that do not state that the munition was flying toward Moscow will not on their own establish that a military action was directed at Moscow.

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