Will the Democrats sweep the House and Senate and Israel and Hamas agree to ceasefire Phase II by the end of 2027?

This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of (1) whether the Democratic Party wins control of both the United States House of Representatives and the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election and (2) whether Israel and Hamas reach an agreement on the second phase of their ceasefire by the end of 2027. Options beginning "Dem sweep" require the Democratic Party to win control of both chambers. Options beginning "No Dem sweep" require the Democratic Party not to win control of at least one of the two chambers. Each option then names the result of the second component ("Phase II deal" or "No Phase II"), as defined below. The option matching both results will resolve to "Yes", and all other options will resolve to "No". Gaza ceasefire Phase II: On October 8, 2025, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza. This component is "Phase II deal" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it is "No Phase II". If the agreement is officially reached by the deadline, it qualifies regardless of if or when the agreement goes into effect. A “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire. Any agreement that is publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire will qualify, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the “yellow line,” or agreements by Hamas to disarm. An extension or continuation of the Phase 1 arrangement alone will not qualify. This component will be determined based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting will also qualify. House and Senate control: A party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the party that wins control of the chamber is the party that wins half of the voting seats and holds the Vice Presidency. If the outcome remains ambiguous after applying the above criteria, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected President Pro Tempore of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated. A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chambers. For determining Senate control, all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Vacant Senate seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. For determining House control, all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a Senate or House seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat, even if it takes place after November 2026. For seats contested in the 2026 midterm election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. For seats not contested in the 2026 midterm election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the 2026 midterm election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the 2026 midterm election. Senate and House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate or House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the 2026 midterm election, this component may remain undetermined until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for the House and Senate component will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.

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