Will One Nation hold the most seats in the New South Wales Legislative Council after the next New South Wales state election?

The 2027 New South Wales state election is currently scheduled to be held on March 27, 2027 to elect members of the 59th Parliament of New South Wales. This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition holds the most seats in the Legislative Council (New South Wales' upper house) following the next New South Wales state election, including both members elected at this election and continuing members whose terms do not expire at this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats held by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties. Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats held in the Legislative Council following the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received in the Legislative Council election, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the New South Wales government, specifically the NSW Electoral Commission (NSWEC) (https://elections.nsw.gov.au/).

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