Will global temperature increase by more than 1.54ºC in November 2026?

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for November 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for November 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for November 2026 is later revised. The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Nov" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for November 2026 is provided by NASA by January 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

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